• Chart-Watch: Rally in Brent Crude to get stronger

    By Tarun Dang on 23 Apr, 2015

    Price of crude oil is likely tracing out an intermediate level (4th) wave - Expecting a recovery to anywhere between 75-80 in the next few months.

    It looks increasining possible that this recovery in prices of Brent is an intermediate level Wave (4). It's forming a zig-zag corrective pattern for this 4th. With wave A & B already concluded this recent rally is the final C wave of this push upwards. 

    Now for some crystal ball gazing based on the Elliott Wave principle. 4th waves can typically retrace to previous 4th wave area, somewhere around the 80 mark. Time-wise the C of this (4) should take relatively longer than A, indicating loss of momentum. Also expect some resistance around the 70-72 mark which is the median line of this corrective channel (marked in blue). A more conservative estimate would be at least a minimum of A=C i.e. 70 in this wave (this again is a wave theory based projection for zig-zags).   

    Also note that based on classic technical analysis a H&S pattern can also be seen to have formed (marked in red) and on a break above its neckline an upside projection can again be easily made. 

    Putting it all together, expecting Brent Crude to see 75-80 in the next few months.

    For a context to this analysis check out our long term Elliott Wave count on Brent Crude here where we had projected the downside before it became severe.