• Chart-Watch: Next Wave Downwards In Brent Crude?

    By Tarun Dang on 20 Oct, 2014

    By the looks of this chart, Brent Crude is in a structural bear market


    Our technical analysis based on wave theory confirms that commodities are now in a structural bear market that will last some years to come. Silver in 2011, gold in 2013 and now oil in 2014, all seem to have signalled their long term (multi-year) tops. Brent crude is off its 2014 highs by about 20% and there are reasons to believe that it could see significant lower levels in the months and years to come. Already, comparisons with the bubble bursting oil price crash of 2008 are being drawn, which saw oil plummet from its highs of $146 to $35 within a span of 6 months. Comparisons are valid because wave structure suggests that the crash of 2008 (marked with an encircled A) was the first of the three waves down of a long term corrective (According to Elliott Wave theory, corrective waves unfold in three wave structures). The pullback (encircled B) since the bottom in 2009 traced out a complex corrective pattern called the triple three combination. It was also a tad short of 78.2% retracement of wave A. From what it looks like at the moment, the recent sharp decline could be the start of final thrust, wave C.